Residential and commercial gas consumption

Residential and commercial gas consumption is on the rise, AEMO’s National Gas Forecasting Report shows, with an annual average rise of 1.1% across Australia’s eastern and south-eastern gas markets. The rise reflects growth in new gas connections outpacing a decline in average use per connection as a result of higher gas prices, efficient energy use, and milder winter weather. Leading the way is Tasmania, with an average annual increase in residential and commercial gas consumption of 5.3% between 2014 and 2019 due to a number of new gas connections.

Gas-powered generation gas consumption 

 

AEMO’s inaugural National Gas Forecasting Report shows a 16.8% average annual reduction in gas-powered generation gas consumption, driven by rising gas prices and flat growth in electricity usage over the short term. 

Gas-powered generation refers to generation plant that uses gas as a fuel for turbines, boilers or engines to produce electricity, and is connected to the National Electricity Market.

The 2014 NGFR uses updated GPG forecasts that better align generator bidding behaviour with observed market behaviour.

Between 2014 and 2019, the decline in gas-powered generation gas consumption can be seen in all eastern and south-eastern gas market regions, with reductions of more than 22% in Queensland, Victoria and Tasmania, and more than 11% in South Australia. A decrease of more than 6% is forecast in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory.

Look out for more key forecast outcomes from the consumption components covered in the NGFR as we post more details, and as always, welcome your feedback.

 

The infographic below sets out in more detail the gas-powered generation consumption trends.  

 

 

Inaugural gas report forecasts short-term increase driven by LNG

We are pleased to release our inaugural National Gas Forecasting Report (NGFR), which forecasts domestic gas consumption and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports in Australia’s eastern and south-eastern gas markets.

The report highlights the substantial change taking place in Australia’s gas markets over the next five years. The major driver for forecasted growth is the impact of Queensland’s LNG projects as exports rise in the short term, resulting in an average annual increase of 23.0% to 2019, with total LNG exports rising to more than 1,400PJ.
 
Excluding the substantial increase in LNG exports, the NGFR illustrates a 5.2% decline in domestic gas consumption to 2019.
 
Declining annual consumption in New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia is driven by reduced operation from industrial and gas-powered generation plant. Tasmania also shows an overall decline, despite a stronger growth in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors.

Reduced operation and industrial closures drive a 3.4% average annual decline in domestic industrial gas consumption.

 
The NGFR also shows that gas consumption by gas-powered generation declines at an average annual rate of 16.8%, linked with minimal growth in electricity consumption and rising gas prices, before a return to positive growth after 2019.
 
Despite reductions in average consumption per connection, residential and commercial consumption is projected to increase by an average of 1.1% to 2019, predominantly due to population growth.
 
Continue to keep a close eye on our social media feeds, as we will soon be posting some videos of those behind our latest report, together with simplified infographics outlining the key findings across 1) residential and commercial, 2) industrial, 3) gas powered generation, and 4) LNG.
  

AEMO's National Gas Market Bulletin Board open for business
AEMO’s new and improved National Gas Market Bulletin Board website is up and running.
 
The NGMBB website is a single electronic communications system covering all major gas production fields, storage facilities, major demand centres and natural gas transmission pipeline systems, including the interconnected systems of South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, New South Wales, Queensland, and the Australian Capital Territory. It provides a real-time map of gas flows and gas usage around the eastern and south-eastern coast of Australia.

The NGMBB aims to facilitate trade in natural gas and market gas services by providing transparent, accurate and readily available system and market information to gas market participants, as well as to the general public.

Benefits of the new NGMBB include enriched data quality, better functioning submission and transacting processes for facility operators, and stronger investment signals for future supply infrastructure projects.

The new NGMBB provides enhanced functionality for users to access, present, and upload information via features including:

• An interactive, information-rich map, driven by Google maps.
• Upgraded reporting features including a new graph and chart tool, and advanced data search and export functionality.
• Improved user functionality including new web forms to submit data, and streamlined login systems.

Visit the NGMBB online.

 

 

AEMO launches National Gas Forecasting Report blog

AEMO is pleased to launch our new discussion blog, specifically designed to focus conversation on our inaugural National Gas Forecasting Report (NGFR) due for release this month. The report will look at forecasts for domestic gas consumption and LNG exports in Australia’s eastern and south-eastern gas market.

 

We are in the process of developing a suite of communication material that will visually tell the story of the report. Please continue to check in to view the latest developments and report updates.

 

To get you thinking about natural gas, check out the simplified natural gas supply chain illustration below (simply click on the image for a larger view).